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By Yin Lei

China’s economy will grow within a stable scope while the global economic growth may lose some momentum in 2019, according to the forecasts of two Chinese research reports.

China’s economic growth may remain stable with very little risk of recession, thanks to its macroeconomic policies of stabilizing growth and enhancing domestic demand, a report of CITIC Securities Company Limited predicts.

This report forecasts that in light of the ongoing deleveraging efforts in China, which curb credit growth at home, its economy will not see a sharp rise and may grow at 6.5 percent in 2019, with a rate of 6.3 percent, 6.4 percent, 6.5 percent and 6.5 percent respectively in the four successive quarters.

At the investment front, fixed asset investments are projected to increase by 6.5 percent, with a higher rate of 8 percent in the manufacturing sector considering the rising prices of industrial products and the high capacity utilization rate of 76 percent to 77 percent.

The investment growth may slow down to 5 percent for real estate and rebound to 8 percent for infrastructure in 2019.

Consumption growth may rise by a small margin to 9.5 percent thanks to stable employment, tax reforms and a weaker drag of auto sales. The consumer price index (CPI) in 2019 is predicted to be tepid, averaging an increase of 2.5 percent to 2.6 percent.

The profit margin of industrial companies may ease to 5 percent in 2019 because of higher costs at the upper stream and financing challenges facing small and medium-sized enterprises.

Another report by China International Capital Corporation Limited (CICC) anticipates slowdown in global economic growth, assuming higher interest rates in the U.S. and Europe and no changes in this regard in Japan, weaker fiscal support in these countries, and the negative impacts of events such as the trade tensions.

Specifically, this report expects the U.S. to experience slower GDP growth of 2.5 percent, a lower jobless rate of 3.2 percent and a higher 2.1 percent rise for the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index next year.

The Eurozone may witness stable growth of 1.8 percent, a lower employment rate of 7.5 percent, and mild inflation of 1.2 percent in 2019.